{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-06-15T08:43:53.724100+00:00","paper":true,"starting_balance_usd":1000.0,"cash_usd":801.16,"open_value_usd":119.37,"equity_usd":920.53,"total_return_pct":-7.95,"unrealized_usd":-15.57,"realized_total_usd":0.13,"closed_counts":{"n":51,"wins":17,"losses":31},"open_positions":[{"key":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry_yes":0.74,"now_yes":0.77,"price_stale":false,"contracts":519.0,"cost_usd":135.0,"value_usd":119.37,"unrealized_usd":-15.57,"take_profit":0.2,"stop_loss":0.1,"opened_at":"2026-06-07T19:13:41.732375+00:00","confidence":0.83,"trade_id":"98c534b2"}],"closed_recent":[{"ts":"2026-06-14 22:44:53","trade_id":"d3c8375a","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.6800","exit":"0.7800","pnl_usd":-62.41,"hold_hours":"171.52","exit_reason":"stop_loss (paper auto-exit)","card_url":"/api/card/d3c8375a.svg"},{"ts":"2026-06-12 11:51:09","trade_id":"55f75910","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.4200","exit":"0.5300","pnl_usd":-16.12,"hold_hours":"111.26","exit_reason":"stop_loss (paper auto-exit)","card_url":"/api/card/55f75910.svg"},{"ts":"2026-06-07 19:13:40","trade_id":"f49f760e","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.5600","exit":"0.2850","pnl_usd":34.07,"hold_hours":"346.69","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis (Iran separating ceasefire from nuclear concessions, near-term escalation unlikely, whale money heavily NO on escalation) has been directly falsified by confirmed Iranian ballistic missile attack. The position reasoning explicitly stated 'Near-term escalation is unlikely'—that assumption is now invalid. Iran has claimed responsibility publicly, making de-escalation containment extremely difficult.","card_url":"/api/card/f49f760e.svg"},{"ts":"2026-06-07 19:13:40","trade_id":"4d83a871","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","side":"NO","entry":"0.4400","exit":"0.1950","pnl_usd":22.63,"hold_hours":"352.26","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis (diplomatic signal dominant, Trump 'largely negotiated' claim, Brent de-risking, Iran deal momentum) has been directly falsified by confirmed Iranian ballistic missile attack on Haifa with IRNA claiming responsibility. The kinetic event makes near-term deal completion (before August deadline) probabilistically much lower; this position explicitly bets NO on August deal.","card_url":"/api/card/4d83a871.svg"},{"ts":"2026-06-07 19:13:40","trade_id":"286bb31d","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.8000","exit":"0.7000","pnl_usd":12.3,"hold_hours":"356.42","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis (Iran deal completion, escalation probability meaningfully below baseline) has been directly falsified by confirmed ballistic missile launches. The reasoning stated 'Ukraine is genuinely escalating but that doesn't move my Iran call'—but Iran itself has now escalated kinetically. This is condition (1): the deal framework that justified NO betting is now incompatible with active military exchange.","card_url":"/api/card/286bb31d.svg"},{"ts":"2026-06-07 19:13:40","trade_id":"d09f2561","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.2300","exit":"0.1050","pnl_usd":6.33,"hold_hours":"617.53","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis (whale consensus against escalation, defensive Iranian posture, mediation ongoing) has been directly falsified by confirmed Iranian ballistic missile attack on Haifa. The position was sized on the absence of offensive buildup; Iran just executed offensive action. The Parchin seismic flag mentioned in reasoning is now superseded by actual kinetic event.","card_url":"/api/card/d09f2561.svg"},{"ts":"2026-06-07 19:13:40","trade_id":"dce29637","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.7900","exit":"0.7500","pnl_usd":2.0,"hold_hours":"638.89","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis (deescalation, Iran deal momentum) has been directly falsified by confirmed ballistic missile launches at Israel with Iranian state media claiming responsibility. This is kinetic escalation, not narrative management. The 92% escalation signal and cross-source convergence (IDF, IRNA, Al Mayadeen, Army Radio, sirens across northern Israel) represents a fundamental break from the 'stalemated conflict' premise that justified the NO position.","card_url":"/api/card/dce29637.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-24 02:40:51","trade_id":"718a1f85","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","side":"NO","entry":"0.3500","exit":"0.5000","pnl_usd":-11.25,"hold_hours":"256.72","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Thesis falsified: framework agreement with uranium enrichment concessions indicates deal momentum is accelerating, not plateaued. Position is already at 0.500 YES (vs 0.350 entry), having eaten 150bp loss. Trump's public statement that deal is 'largely negotiated' directly undermines the August-window NO thesis. Exit and avoid further theta bleed.","card_url":"/api/card/718a1f85.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-24 01:02:43","trade_id":"c3630381","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.5000","exit":"0.6300","pnl_usd":-10.53,"hold_hours":"65.71","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Thesis directly falsified: Full-year Iranian nuclear deal framework is now confirmed by multiple independent sources (IRNA, NYT, Al Mayadeen, Pakistani mediation). Iran has agreed to give up enriched uranium—the hardest concession. Market has repriced YES to 0.63 and will continue moving higher. This position was entered on DEESCALATE/NO signal but the signal has definitively inverted to DEAL/YES. Do not hold a losing position when the underlying event is no longer in doubt.","card_url":"/api/card/c3630381.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-23 22:48:20","trade_id":"e5c84c57","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.7400","exit":"0.8200","pnl_usd":-23.04,"hold_hours":"282.47","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Same falsification: Trump deal announcement with multi-source editorial convergence on imminent agreement. This position entered on deescalation signal but that signal has now RESOLVED into concrete deal negotiation news. Holding a NO position when the market is pricing imminent YES resolution is capital suboptimization.","card_url":"/api/card/e5c84c57.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-13 09:57:24","trade_id":"782ad769","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","side":"NO","entry":"0.3200","exit":"0.3550","pnl_usd":-2.1,"hold_hours":"2.54","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position underwater (−$2.10) on a near-term August deadline with unfavorable YES price drift (0.320→0.355). Market is repricing slightly toward deal/escalation despite stated thesis of plateau. At only 40% escalation probability and 2.5h hold time with no fresh catalyst, the marginal risk/reward has inverted — capital better deployed elsewhere.","card_url":"/api/card/782ad769.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-13 07:23:09","trade_id":"2218addb","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","side":"NO","entry":"0.2900","exit":"0.3300","pnl_usd":-4.24,"hold_hours":"27.05","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is -40bp underwater (YES moved 0.290→0.330) after 27h; August deadline market is correctly repricing the risk that near-term diplomatic activity could accelerate. Kalshi order flow shows 93% NO on June deadline but this Aug contract is showing weakness. Exit now to preserve capital and redeploy into positions with better risk/reward.","card_url":"/api/card/2218addb.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-13 01:41:50","trade_id":"428fda4f","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.1900","exit":"0.2350","pnl_usd":-2.7,"hold_hours":"21.36","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is materially underwater (-$2.70) with YES at 0.235 vs 0.190 entry, a +47 bps move against NO thesis in just 21.4h. July deadline is extremely tight (within days), leaving little time for reversal. Conviction in near-term de-escalation is not strong enough to hold a losing position with zero runway. Exit and redeploy capital to longer-dated, less volatile NO contracts.","card_url":"/api/card/428fda4f.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-09 00:47:03","trade_id":"185a71c5","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.8000","exit":"0.8150","pnl_usd":-2.43,"hold_hours":"2.24","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is underwater (-2.43) after only 2.2h with YES price moving against the","card_url":"/api/card/185a71c5.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-08 22:24:56","trade_id":"8f65985f","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","side":"NO","entry":"0.3500","exit":"0.3950","pnl_usd":-2.25,"hold_hours":"2.88","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is losing (-$2.25) and original reasoning explicitly acknowledged whale","card_url":"/api/card/8f65985f.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-08 22:15:24","trade_id":"fa4e3d0d","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.8000","exit":"0.8150","pnl_usd":-3.75,"hold_hours":"2.72","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is -3.75, held only 2.7h, and the original reasoning explicitly noted w","card_url":"/api/card/fa4e3d0d.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-08 14:31:53","trade_id":"0bf4f356","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.5700","exit":"0.5850","pnl_usd":-1.14,"hold_hours":"2.64","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Identical thesis to position 9f3750ae ('controlled escalation, not breakout'). N","card_url":"/api/card/0bf4f356.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-08 14:31:53","trade_id":"9f3750ae","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.8000","exit":"0.8100","pnl_usd":-2.5,"hold_hours":"2.64","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position thesis was 'controlled escalation, not breakout' with sizing down due t","card_url":"/api/card/9f3750ae.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 21:29:59","trade_id":"06622308","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","side":"YES","entry":"0.4100","exit":"0.3850","pnl_usd":-4.95,"hold_hours":"20.28","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis (Iran-US deal momentum, deescalation) has been fundamentally inv","card_url":"/api/card/06622308.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 19:42:54","trade_id":"42c50240","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"YES","entry":"0.5900","exit":"0.5750","pnl_usd":-1.91,"hold_hours":"2.42","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is losing (-$1.91) after only 2.4h and has moved against thesis despite","card_url":"/api/card/42c50240.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 13:14:05","trade_id":"f62f8128","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.7800","exit":"0.7900","pnl_usd":-3.41,"hold_hours":"2.00","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position thesis was NO on year-long deal (betting against agreement), entered 2h","card_url":"/api/card/f62f8128.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 11:12:26","trade_id":"7804b9d2","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.7800","exit":"0.7950","pnl_usd":-5.12,"hold_hours":"2.23","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Position is betting NO on a year-long deal contract while simultaneously holding","card_url":"/api/card/7804b9d2.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 08:58:25","trade_id":"f133c9b9","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.7800","exit":"0.7900","pnl_usd":-3.69,"hold_hours":"5.25","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — This NO position (betting against yearly Iran deal) has moved unfavorably to 0.7","card_url":"/api/card/f133c9b9.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 03:43:26","trade_id":"d022b42d","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.7700","exit":"0.7900","pnl_usd":-7.06,"hold_hours":"2.50","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — Original thesis was NO on US-Iran deal (escalation play), but latest signal show","card_url":"/api/card/d022b42d.svg"},{"ts":"2026-05-07 01:13:28","trade_id":"4877fb93","exchange":"kalshi","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","side":"NO","entry":"0.3300","exit":"0.4750","pnl_usd":-13.2,"hold_hours":"26.96","exit_reason":"Claude exit (immediate) — September contract is now moving against the de-escalation thesis: YES price mov","card_url":"/api/card/4877fb93.svg"}],"honesty":{"claims_demonstrated_edge":false,"note":"PAPER portfolio — simulated fills, no real money, started at $1000. It expresses the engine's calls as positions so they can be judged like positions; it is not investment advice and the engine has no demonstrated edge (see /research). Every closed trade has a shareable receipt card; every call is graded at /receipts."}}