{
  "as_of": "2026-05-19T02:30:17.880682+00:00",
  "model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
  "n_cycles": 50,
  "n_runs_total": 466,
  "stochastic_baseline_mean_abs_delta": 0.064,
  "sources": {
    "whale": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0418,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.02,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 28.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": 0.0106,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "kalshi_flow": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0602,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.02,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 26.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0514,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "financial": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0436,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.01,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 20.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0264,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "events": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 45,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0422,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.01,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 26.67,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0293,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "podcasts": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0372,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.0,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 18.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.022,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "polymarket": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0226,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.0,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 18.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0094,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "metaculus": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.033,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.02,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 12.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0142,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "seismic": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 21,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.021,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.01,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 14.29,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0086,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    },
    "calibration": {
      "n_cycles_with_source": 50,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.0386,
      "median_abs_delta": 0.01,
      "pct_cycles_moved_5pp": 10.0,
      "mean_signed_delta": -0.0246,
      "verdict": "indistinguishable_from_noise"
    }
  },
  "cost": {
    "input_tokens": 14331958,
    "output_tokens": 954344,
    "usd_estimated": 15.28,
    "price_assumed": {
      "input_per_1m": 0.7999999999999999,
      "output_per_1m": 4.0
    }
  },
  "notes": "Direct attribution: probability delta when one source-type is removed from the prompt and the model re-runs. The stochastic baseline shows the model's variance on the SAME input. Sources with mean |\u0394| below 1.2\u00d7 baseline are indistinguishable from noise; \u2265 2\u00d7 baseline are flagged as moves_probability. Sample is random N from replay-bundle corpus, seeded for reproducibility."
}