{
  "name": "TrenchSignals open calibration dataset",
  "version": "20260610",
  "file": "ts-calibration-20260610.csv",
  "sha256": "0d2ef18f9a7301fdb226b94fe68f33624f52d364049a292a8d36014bfc1f0f6e",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-10T02:28:49.488969+00:00",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "rows": 8506,
  "distinct_markets": 24,
  "resolved_rows": 252,
  "distinct_resolved_markets": 2,
  "span": {
    "first": "2026-04-20T02:42:17.987159+00:00",
    "last": "2026-06-10T02:21:06.998409+00:00"
  },
  "schema": [
    {
      "column": "evaluated_at",
      "description": "UTC ISO timestamp the engine scored this market"
    },
    {
      "column": "exchange",
      "description": "kalshi | polymarket"
    },
    {
      "column": "ticker",
      "description": "venue market id (Polymarket: the YES CLOB token id)"
    },
    {
      "column": "question",
      "description": "market question text at evaluation time"
    },
    {
      "column": "theater",
      "description": "engine theater tag (iran/ukraine/taiwan/north_korea/...) or empty"
    },
    {
      "column": "our_prob_yes",
      "description": "engine probability of YES at evaluated_at (0-1)"
    },
    {
      "column": "market_yes_price",
      "description": "venue YES price the engine saw at the same instant (0-1)"
    },
    {
      "column": "market_yes_bid",
      "description": "best bid where captured, else empty"
    },
    {
      "column": "market_yes_ask",
      "description": "best ask where captured, else empty"
    },
    {
      "column": "days_to_resolution",
      "description": "days until the market's stated resolution, where known"
    },
    {
      "column": "resolved",
      "description": "1 if a resolution row exists, else 0"
    },
    {
      "column": "outcome",
      "description": "WIN/LOSS relative to the engine's implied side, where graded"
    },
    {
      "column": "settlement_yes_price",
      "description": "1.0/0.0 settlement where cleanly resolved"
    },
    {
      "column": "resolved_at",
      "description": "UTC ISO resolution sync time, where graded"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "source": "append-only shadow log (Hook A/B) behind trenchsignals.io",
    "pre_registration": "every observation hash-anchored nightly \u2014 trenchsignals.io/registry",
    "grading": "resolutions synced nightly from venue APIs (Kalshi REST, Polymarket gamma)"
  },
  "honesty_notes": [
    "Engine-scored observations only (rows where the engine emitted a probability); the engine evaluates far more markets than it scores.",
    "distinct_resolved_markets is TINY at export time \u2014 calibration claims from this dataset are underpowered below ~30 distinct resolved markets (see trenchsignals.io/underpowered).",
    "Observations of the same market across cycles are heavily autocorrelated; collapse per market (or per market-day) before computing intervals.",
    "No demonstrated edge is claimed; the pre-registered lead-lag study over this data returned a primary null (trenchsignals.io/research)."
  ],
  "citation": {
    "text": "Dussold, C. (2026). TrenchSignals open calibration dataset (v20260610) [Data set]. trenchsignals.io/data",
    "bibtex": "@misc{trenchsignals_20260610,\n  author = {Dussold, Christopher},\n  title = {TrenchSignals open calibration dataset},\n  year = {2026},\n  version = {20260610},\n  howpublished = {\\url{https://trenchsignals.io/data}}\n}",
    "doi": null,
    "doi_note": "Zenodo DOI pending first archive upload (operator step)."
  }
}