{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-20T02:42:17.964743+00:00-0f81a3f9", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-20T02:42:17.964743+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "NO", "probability_yes": 0.15, "confidence": 0.79, "direction": "YES", "reasoning": "Kinetic US-Iran exchange is now factual, not hypothetical—baseline assumption of ceasefire stability is invalidated. Escalation probability rises from 64% baseline to ~78% over 72h. However, smart-money consensus (87% betting regime survives, 100% on nuclear deal happening) and absence of US damage claims suggest this cycle remains contained. Trade YES on escalation occurring within 72h, but size conservatively (1.3x) to reflect smart-money skepticism of regime-collapse scenarios and uncertainty about whether current kinetic exchange constitutes 'escalation' (defined as crossing a new threshold) or return to baseline hostility. Markets on US-Iran nuclear deal and Iranian regime stability are mispriced relative to the escalation signal but may have longer time horizons than 72h."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.225, "market_yes_bid": 0.22, "market_yes_ask": 0.23, "spread": 0.01, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 11.4706, "brier_score": 0.0225}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-20T06:28:05.587665+00:00-2b9f0473", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-20T06:28:05.587665+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "NO", "probability_yes": 0.18, "confidence": 0.72, "direction": "YES", "reasoning": "Breaking maritime escalation (US cargo seizure + Iranian military retaliation vow) is the highest-integrity signal in the dataset, corroborated across opposing-bias sources in real-time. Iran's hardened diplomatic stance (rejecting talks, demanding preconditions) narrows the de-escalation pathway in the critical next 72 hours. Theater-specific escalation trend for Iran has risen to 76% (vs 72% baseline) across multiple recent cycles, indicating sustained momentum, not a one-off blip. Smart money's bearish regime-fall stance does NOT preclude near-term tactical escalation — in fact, whale positioning on nuclear deal (100% YES) suggests they expect talks to eventually resume, meaning current tension is expected to be temporary but real. However, whales' strong NO position on regime collapse and broad multi-market de-escalation bias warrant a 1.3x (rather than 1.5+x) position multiplier to respect uncertainty."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.255, "market_yes_bid": 0.25, "market_yes_ask": 0.26, "spread": 0.01, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 11.3138, "brier_score": 0.0324}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-21T14:21:54.643187+00:00-a552d468", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-21T14:21:54.643187+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.42, "confidence": 0.72, "direction": "NO", "reasoning": "Posterior escalation probability (0.38) is well below baseline (0.70) and contradicts the market's current short-term escalation pricing on Iran-related markets. Whales are net bearish escalation with exceptionally high confidence (86% NO on regime fall, 100% YES on deal). Oil markets and financial indices are pricing de-escalation, not conflict. While Russian state media noise is voluminous, it is not matched by actionable OSINT or Western official escalatory moves. The scheduled Pakistan talks (Apr 22) and Ghalibaf/Vance attendance are concrete de-escalatory catalysts. Bet against near-term escalation in Iran theater with 1.3x size."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.245, "market_yes_bid": 0.24, "market_yes_ask": 0.25, "spread": 0.01, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 9.9848, "brier_score": 0.1764}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-21T22:00:21.678172+00:00-7dd20b8b", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-21T22:00:21.678172+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.15, "confidence": 0.78, "direction": "NO", "reasoning": "The dominant signal is de-escalation in the near term (24–72h). Trump's unilateral ceasefire extension, despite Iranian rejection of talks, removes the imminent trigger for a US military response that was the prior market narrative. Smart money is heavily positioned NO on escalation and YES on nuclear deal prospects (100% whale consensus on 'US-Iran deal 2027'). Financial markets are pricing de-escalation. The residual risk is that negotiation collapse after 72h triggers delayed escalation, but that is outside the 72h window. Recommend NO on all immediate escalation markets and YES on longer-term nuclear deal/de-escalation markets."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.0915, "market_yes_bid": 0.091, "market_yes_ask": 0.092, "spread": 0.001, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 9.6664, "brier_score": 0.0225}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-21T22:45:23.139880+00:00-94cf3cee", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-21T22:45:23.139880+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.18, "confidence": 0.76, "direction": "NO", "reasoning": "Iran/Middle East escalation probability has fallen from 73% baseline to 43% recent (confirmed downtrend across 20 cycles). Today's signal reinforces this: Trump's unilateral ceasefire extension despite Iranian rejection signals sustained US preference for negotiation, not military action. Whale consensus (86% NO on regime fall, 100% YES on nuclear deal) and hard-asset de-escalation (oil/defense selling) all point to settlement trajectory. Recommended trade: bet NO on imminent escalation and YES on nuclear deal markets with sufficient edge."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.094, "market_yes_bid": 0.092, "market_yes_ask": 0.096, "spread": 0.004, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 9.6351, "brier_score": 0.0324}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-22T02:30:59.082733+00:00-5c5ce00a", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-22T02:30:59.082733+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.25, "confidence": 0.76, "direction": "NO", "reasoning": "Escalation probability has fallen 34 percentage points (60% baseline → 28% posterior) driven by convergence of official de-escalation messaging, smart money consensus, financial market pricing, and signal trend confirmation. Trump's blockade maintenance is leveraging tactic, not escalation trigger. Iran's silence on talks and diplomat's explicit non-escalation claim contradict any imminent military response. Recommend NO on escalation-heavy markets (Iranian regime fall, nuclear deal delay) and YES on de-escalation plays (ceasefire extension, deal progress) where edge exists vs mid-price."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.085, "market_yes_bid": 0.081, "market_yes_ask": 0.089, "spread": 0.008, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 9.4785, "brier_score": 0.0625}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-22T04:00:45.733755+00:00-e97351f7", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-22T04:00:45.733755+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.22, "confidence": 0.74, "direction": "NO", "reasoning": "Escalation probability has fallen sharply (57% → 36% across Iran theater per trend data), driven by ceasefire extension, whale consensus heavily short on escalation (~1.93M capital), and financial markets pricing de-escalation (oil down 5.7%, defense equities down 3.8%). Trump's framing of Hormuz as a negotiating lever, not a military blockade, signals intent to extract concessions through economic leverage rather than kinetic action. Iran's rhetorical rejection is noise; operational silence is the signal. Confidence of 0.74 reflects strong cross-source alignment (WESTERN_MEDIA + OFFICIAL_GOV + OSINT + WHALE + FINANCIAL_MARKETS), though anchored below 0.80 because Iranian state posturing and Hezbollah friction remain non-zero tail risks. Trade NO with 1.5x size multiplier on shorter-dated markets (May, June) where ceasefire extension timelines create immediate downside for escalation bets."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.0835, "market_yes_bid": 0.082, "market_yes_ask": 0.085, "spread": 0.003, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 9.4161, "brier_score": 0.0484}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-22T04:30:36.215602+00:00-f542f866", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-22T04:30:36.215602+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.15, "confidence": 0.72, "direction": "NO", "reasoning": "Markets are pricing escalation correctly or conservatively. Whale consensus, financial indicators, and official policy all point to de-escalation in Iran theater (the dominant theater in feed). Ukraine remains stable/low-signal, Taiwan/NK unchanged. 72h window is too short for strategic reversal given ceasefire just extended. Edge exists on Iran nuclear deal markets (long-dated ones) where whale 100% YES alignment and Trump policy signals suggest mid-prices may be too low (0.40–0.83 range is wide; allocate toward longer-dated YES positions). Recommended: size NO positions on escalation markets proportionally larger; pick selective YES on nuclear deal markets where edge is clearest."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.083, "market_yes_bid": 0.08, "market_yes_ask": 0.086, "spread": 0.006, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 9.3952, "brier_score": 0.0225}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-23T00:02:58.424362+00:00-4f260ade", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-23T00:02:58.424362+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "NO", "probability_yes": 0.03, "confidence": 0.78, "direction": "YES", "reasoning": "The Hormuz ship seizures are confirmed by IRGC's own footage — this is not a claim, it is an admission of an act of war against commercial shipping hours after a ceasefire signal, which indicates Iran is deliberately escalating rather than accepting de-escalation. The combination of active US airstrikes (if Tehran explosions are confirmed), Hormuz closure risk, US domestic constraint removal, and Iran's diplomatic offensive at the UN creates a high-probability near-term escalation environment. The relevant Kalshi market (KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY at 0.07) is dramatically mispriced if active kinetic conflict is ongoing — a deal in May becomes nearly impossible under these conditions, and I estimate it at ~0.03. The annual deal market (KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 at 0.70) may be slightly rich given current kinetics but longer time horizon supports it; the June contract (0.35) looks roughly fair given the trajectory."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.07, "market_yes_bid": 0.068, "market_yes_ask": 0.072, "spread": 0.004, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 8.5813, "brier_score": 0.0009}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-23T17:48:16.656558+00:00-ecd631f8", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-23T17:48:16.656558+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "YES", "probability_yes": 0.15, "confidence": 0.72, "direction": "YES", "reasoning": "Near-term escalation in Iran/Middle East theater is elevated to 68% due to four simultaneous real-world escalation signals (Tehran air defense activation, US Navy mine-destruction orders, Israeli Lebanon strikes, Brent crude spike). However, whale consensus on US-Iran deal (100% YES, $15.5k capital) and regime survival (85% NO on fall) suggests smart money expects this tactical spike to resolve into negotiation within 30 days. Recommend moderate-sized YES bet on 72-hour escalation markets (high confidence in next steps: more strikes, more rhetoric) but reduce size (0.8x) due to divergence between tactical and strategic signals. Do NOT bet regime fall or broad escalation beyond 30 days — whales are correct that this is likely a deal-negotiation pattern, not sustained war."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.0365, "market_yes_bid": 0.033, "market_yes_ask": 0.04, "spread": 0.007, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 7.8415, "brier_score": 0.0225}, "anchor": null}
{"sample_id": "trench-eval-2026-04-23T19:48:16.905683+00:00-ee898a51", "schema_version": "0.1.0", "question": {"text": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?", "type": "binary", "exchange": "kalshi", "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY", "theater": "iran", "event_type": null, "resolves_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z"}, "prediction": {"made_at": "2026-04-23T19:48:16.905683+00:00", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "side": "NO", "probability_yes": 0.02, "confidence": 0.76, "direction": "YES", "reasoning": "Iran/Strait escalation probability has risen from 29% to 66% on your own trend data, and today's corroborated mine deployment + Trump's explicit naval orders + 3-carrier surge represent the strongest break in this cycle. While whale money is bearish escalation long-term, the 72-hour tactical window shows clear military escalation posturing (blockade + mine countermeasures + carrier ops). Brent crude repricing confirms market is registering real conflict risk. Key risk: whale positioning may front-run a de-escalation if talks resume, but the next 72 hours are highest-risk period for incident escalation given Trump's 'shoot' order and Iran's mine ops in parallel."}, "context": {"market_yes_price": 0.05, "market_yes_bid": 0.043, "market_yes_ask": 0.057, "spread": 0.014, "replay_bundle_id": null}, "resolution": {"resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z", "outcome": "NO", "settlement_yes_price": 0.0, "days_to_resolution": 7.758, "brier_score": 0.0004}, "anchor": null}