{
  "study": "engine-vs-market convergence (lead-lag)",
  "spec_version": "v1 (pre-registered 2026-06-09, frozen)",
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      "model0": 0.18,
      "mkt0": 0.285,
      "div0": -0.105,
      "dir": -1.0,
      "days_to_res": null,
      "cost": 0.0285,
      "6h": null,
      "24h": 0.03,
      "72h": 0.05,
      "7d": null
    },
    {
      "exchange": "kalshi",
      "ticker": "KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG",
      "t0": 494683.228,
      "model0": 0.03,
      "mkt0": 0.195,
      "div0": -0.165,
      "dir": -1.0,
      "days_to_res": null,
      "cost": 0.022,
      "6h": null,
      "24h": -0.0,
      "72h": 0.02,
      "7d": null
    },
    {
      "exchange": "polymarket",
      "ticker": "10991849228756847439673778874175365458450913336396982752046655649803657501964",
      "t0": 494690.2702,
      "model0": 0.03,
      "mkt0": 0.13,
      "div0": -0.1,
      "dir": -1.0,
      "days_to_res": null,
      "cost": 0.02,
      "6h": null,
      "24h": 0.005,
      "72h": 0.005,
      "7d": null
    }
  ],
  "honesty": {
    "n_resolved_markets_alltime": 2,
    "note": "Interim metric: market movement is a PROXY for truth, not truth. A positive result can reflect the market catching up to the engine OR shared news arriving late to the tape; a null result at this n bounds the edge as small, not zero. The spec is frozen; this study re-runs weekly as the paired corpus grows."
  },
  "v2": {
    "spec_version": "v2 (pre-registered 2026-06-10, frozen)",
    "episodes": {
      "n": 4,
      "dropped": {
        "no_persistence": 262,
        "insufficient_history": 109,
        "not_fresh": 867,
        "ttr_unknown": 30,
        "refractory": 405
      }
    },
    "primary_abnormal_24h": {
      "n": 4,
      "n_tickers": 4,
      "mean": -0.009,
      "share_positive": 0.25,
      "ci95": [
        -0.0159,
        -0.0022
      ],
      "perm_p": 0.2479
    },
    "raw_drift_24h": {
      "n": 4,
      "n_tickers": 4,
      "mean": -0.0087,
      "share_positive": 0.0,
      "ci95": [
        -0.0175,
        0.0
      ],
      "perm_p": 0.5034
    },
    "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED (n=4<150) \u2014 descriptive only: mean abnormal convergence -0.009 at 24h, CI excludes 0",
    "power_gate": {
      "required": 150,
      "have": 4,
      "passed": false
    },
    "secondary_holm": {
      "ac_6h": {
        "n": 5,
        "n_tickers": 5,
        "mean": 0.0098,
        "share_positive": 0.8,
        "ci95": [
          0.0039,
          0.0158
        ],
        "perm_p": 0.1221,
        "holm_p": 0.1221
      },
      "ac_72h": {
        "n": 0
      },
      "ac_7d": {
        "n": 0
      },
      "executable_24h": {
        "n": 4,
        "n_tickers": 4,
        "mean": -0.0488,
        "share_positive": 0.0,
        "ci95": [
          -0.0648,
          -0.0327
        ],
        "perm_p": 0.0001,
        "holm_p": 0.0002
      }
    },
    "strawman_rothschild": {
      "n": 20,
      "n_tickers": 20,
      "mean": 0.0155,
      "share_positive": 0.65,
      "ci95": [
        -0.02,
        0.0484
      ],
      "perm_p": 0.3942
    },
    "splits_descriptive": {
      "venue_kalshi": {
        "n": 4,
        "n_tickers": 4,
        "mean": -0.009,
        "share_positive": 0.25,
        "ci95": [
          -0.0159,
          -0.0022
        ],
        "perm_p": 0.2479
      },
      "venue_polymarket": {
        "n": 0
      },
      "cat_geo": {
        "n": 4,
        "n_tickers": 4,
        "mean": -0.009,
        "share_positive": 0.25,
        "ci95": [
          -0.0159,
          -0.0022
        ],
        "perm_p": 0.2479
      },
      "cat_macro": {
        "n": 0
      },
      "model_moved": {
        "n": 4,
        "n_tickers": 4,
        "mean": -0.009,
        "share_positive": 0.25,
        "ci95": [
          -0.0159,
          -0.0022
        ],
        "perm_p": 0.2479
      },
      "market_moved": {
        "n": 0
      }
    }
  },
  "technique_backtest": {
    "n": 1356,
    "proxy": "debiased market mid 7d later (b: 1.0/<1d, 1.15/1-30d, 1.30/>30d)",
    "mean_proxy_brier": {
      "raw": 0.00777,
      "market": 0.00298,
      "debiased_market": 0.00242,
      "pool_w02": 0.00236,
      "pool_w04": 0.0028
    },
    "clean_test_decay_vs_stale": null,
    "biased_tests_market_anchoring": {
      "note": "CAVEAT BY CONSTRUCTION: the proxy is derived from the future market, so market-anchored candidates are favored mechanically. Reported for transparency; only the decay test is clean.",
      "raw_vs_pool_w02": {
        "n": 1356,
        "n_tickers": 15,
        "mean_proxy_brier_diff": 0.00541,
        "ci95": [
          0.00283,
          0.00825
        ],
        "better": "pool_w02"
      },
      "raw_vs_pool_w04": {
        "n": 1356,
        "n_tickers": 15,
        "mean_proxy_brier_diff": 0.00497,
        "ci95": [
          0.00264,
          0.00763
        ],
        "better": "pool_w04"
      }
    }
  }
}