Cross-variant agreement · live

markets currently held across variants.

Where Trench's paper variants agree, and where they don't. When multiple variants take the same side at the same time on the same market, that's parameter-robustness — the call doesn't depend on one particular threshold. When they disagree, that disagreement is itself a signal worth reading.

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Caveat — agreement is NOT independent confirmation structurally_independent: false
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How we measure agreement (three metrics):
  • agreement_score: max(L, S) / n — raw rate.
  • agreement_score_weighted: dominant fraction weighted by confidence × position size.
  • agreement_strength: agreement_score × √n / √Nmax — penalises small-n unanimity (2/2 = 0.71, 3/3 = 0.87, 4/4 = 1.00).
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