Cross-variant agreement · live

… markets currently held across … variants.

Where Trench's paper variants agree, and where they don't. When multiple variants take the same side at the same time on the same market, that's parameter-robustness — the call doesn't depend on one particular threshold. When they disagree, that disagreement is itself a signal worth reading.

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Caveat — agreement is NOT independent confirmation structurally_independent: false
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How we measure agreement (three metrics):
  • agreement_score: max(L, S) / n — raw rate.
  • agreement_score_weighted: dominant fraction weighted by confidence × position size.
  • agreement_strength: agreement_score × √n / √Nmax — penalises small-n unanimity (2/2 = 0.71, 3/3 = 0.87, 4/4 = 1.00).
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