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Brier skill vs market · hit rate

Every closed Trench-variant or Arena-agent paper trade with confidence ≥ 0.74. Wins-only by default — toggle "Show losses" to see the full record. Aggregate stats below describe the complete denominator (wins + losses), not just what's listed. Hit rates carry Wilson 95% CIs; cumulative P&L carries a block-bootstrap 95% CI. Math centralised in src/stats_utils.py; any number on this page is computable from trench_core.calibration and reproducible byte-identical.

Lookback: 90 days · anchor pipeline live from 2026-05-07 · download CSV ↓
Wins
Losses
95% CI: —
Hit rate (decisive trades)
95% CI: —
Total P&L (paper)
model — / market —
Brier skill vs market (coverage )
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