The calibration dataset, in the open.

Every engine-scored observation behind this site: our probability beside the simultaneous Kalshi/Polymarket price, time-stamped, hash-anchored before outcomes were knowable, with resolutions joined as markets grade. To our knowledge the only public dataset pairing an independent forecaster’s pre-registered probabilities with venue prices and outcomes across two venues. Take it, test us, publish what you find.

Download CSV (latest) metadata + schema (JSON)

Schema

Provenance

• Source: the append-only evaluation log behind THE LEDGER and the calibration page — logged every cycle, including SKIPs.
• Pre-registration: nightly SHA-256 chain, externally anchored — /registry.
• Grading: resolutions synced nightly from the venues’ own APIs; graded calls surface at /receipts.

Cite it

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